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This month, the three subjects are: an analysis of the international economic conjuncture, the French government's reforms and economic perspectives in Vietnam.
An analysis of the international economic conjuncture
Philippe d'Arvisenet, Director of Economic Research
“… the revision of the US GDP, […] confirms that we are far from a recession. This good surprise came from, ( I ) the fact that the households have spent a lot of the tax rebate that they have benefited from over the last few months, and more importantly, (II ) from the positive contribution of foreign trade both on the side of exports, (which have been sustained by the weakness of the dollar, and by the resilience of emerging markets, which were consumers for US manufactured goods) and ( III ) a drop in US imports in line with the slowdown of the domestic demand. […]
When it comes to the eurozone we had also a confirmation that the decoupling story was just a dream. And we have seen economic activity in the eurozone contracting by 0.2% last quarter as signalled by surveys by the way. […]”
The French economic situation: return on the reforms put in place by the government
Mathieu Kaiser, OCDE Economist
“These reforms are positive to the extent that they will lift obstacles to activity, competition, entrepreneurship, innovation, and, in the long term, incomes. They are thus likely to raise growth and dampen prices, especially in the retail sector.”
Vietnam: the evolutionary perspectives in the actual inflationary context
Guy Longueville, Head of Country Risks
“Last year, signs of overheating appeared. A new inflow of speculative capital and a rapid growth of credits accelerated internal demand, stocked inflation and started a deterioration of external accounts. Since the beginning of the year, the deterioration of the trade balance has suddenly accelerated.”
Discover the September episode
The Economic Research department at BNP Paribas economists in the banking service and its clients from the principle financial markets worldwide. The website, regularly proposes different publications: macroeconomic analysis, the OCDE country's monetary and finance, Country risks from emerging countries and the evolution of the financial and banking world.
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