1. Germany back in the spotlight
Germany is expected to return to growth in 2026, after four years of stagnation, thanks to massive investments in defence and rail infrastructure, and a recovery in industrial production. Demand is already rebounding strongly.
2. European momentum
The European Union plans to buy more in Europe, which should provide a growth driver for European companies. In this context, the growth in German intra-EU exports (nearly 4% in 2025 after two years of decline) is an encouraging first sign.
3. An increasingly robust Europe
With high savings, it is continuing its financial integration and developing new tools, particularly in the area of payments (see our analysis). While German long-term interest rates have risen, the narrowing of spreads with most other Member States is a sign of the eurozone's strength in the eyes of investors.
4. France, the bridgehead for Europe's shift towards AI
France has an ecosystem that is favourable to innovative technology companies and digital services and is attracting a growing number of investment projects in AI, which could give it leadership in Europe in this field.
5. Cautious return of European consumers
European household consumption is expected to rebound in 2026 (our analysis), thanks to improved purchasing power and reduced concerns about unemployment, which should lead to an increase in consumption in the eurozone.
Europe is built on crises. Its responses to the crises it has just experienced give us reason to be reasonably optimistic about its ability to move forward».
