In this 9th episode of "On the Move", Stéphane Colliac, Head of the Advanced Economies team at BNP Paribas Economic Research, deciphers and analyses the challenges of a sector in the midst of restructuring, where China dominates, Europe is accelerating, and consumers are arbitrating between cost, technology and sustainability.
The automobile industry: an industry in transition
In 2025, the global automotive market remained dynamic with 90 million vehicles sold. However, its center of gravity has shifted, marked by three major trends: electrification, Asian dominance and the growing integration of technologies.
- China, which accounts for more than a third of global sales and produces 80% of batteries and 75% of electric vehicles (EVs).
- Europe and the United States in transition: Europe is making progress in electrification, with 30% market share for EVs, compared to 10% in the United States. However, their future growth will depend on their ability to re-locate production and control costs, in a context of increased competition.
- Vehicules are becoming Software-Defined Vehicles integrating more and more semiconductors and artificial intelligence. This evolution translates into a structural increase in production costs, with a direct impact on prices for consumers.
"We are moving towards vehicles that will be more dependent on electronics with a lot of on-board electronics to support tomorrow's uses. Today, we are integrating chips that will be ready to accommodate new features even before they exist."
The European dilemma: industrial sovereignty or dependence ?
Europe needs to catch up with China, while preserving its industrial autonomy. Driven by incentivizing regulations, local production is growing, but this dynamic is coming up against structural obstacles. To reverse the trend, European players will have to secure strategic technological partnerships and strengthen their investments in innovation, in order to develop solutions that are competitive, sustainable and less dependent on Asian players.
"The key for Europe? Securing technology transfers through partnerships and investing massively in R&D to innovate on economic and sustainable solutions".
In summary:
- China leads the market, but its growth is slowing—leading to increased exports.
- Europe is advancing, but its sovereignty will depend on its ability to innovate and produce locally.
- Consumers balance cost, range, and resale value—highlighting the importance of subsidies.
- Electrification reduces oil dependence but creates new dependencies (semiconductors, critical materials).
On the Move, the BNP Paribas podcast on sustainable mobility solutions
In this series, BNP Paribas experts share their views on the challenges related to sustainable mobility and headways for more inclusive and environmentally conscious mobility solutions
BNP Paribas economic research: analysing global trends
BNP Paribas Economic Research brings together around 20 economists who examine global economic shifts, with a focus on financing the real economy. Their externally available publications help inform decision-makers by bridging short- and long-term perspectives.
Stéphane Colliac, Head of the Advanced Economies team, tracks developments in Europe, the US, and Japan, while producing forecasts for France.
BNP Paribas, official partner of Paris Motor Show 2026
As an official partner, BNP Paribas will participate in three key conferences:
- Tuesday 13 october, 2.30pm
-Reinventing the Customer Experience in the Age of AI", conference Cycle BCG/Google (Pavillon 7.1 stand 71F35) with Fabrice Le Chatelier, AI Director, Arval.
- Thursday, 15 october, 2pm
-Corporate Fleets: Succeeding in Transformation Amid Decarbonisation and Data Challenges, with Régis Masera, Arval Mobility Observatory Director and Consulting Director of Arval France.
-Can You Still Afford a Car—and Drive It? with Christophe Michaëli, Head of Automotive Market, BNP Paribas Personal Finance.
